Three years ago this month, Columbia University Law School professor Tim Wu released a controversial white paper in conjunction with the New America Foundation entitled, "Wireless Net Neutrality: Cellular Carterfone and Consumer Choice in Mobile Broadband." It contained a litany of accusations regarding supposed corporate shenanigans in the mobile marketplace, including: intentional crippling of features and functionality; refusal to allow 3rd party attachments or intentional curtailment of a market for 3rd party application developers; and various concerns about "discrimination" of one sort or another.

Over at the TLF, the group responded quite forcefully. I think every one of the TLF contributors piled on this study in one way or another. (ex: Hance, Jerry, James, Tim Lee, me x 2, + a podcast). I called his proposal "a declaration of surrender" since Prof. Wu was essential calling the game early and raising the white flag on mobile competition. Further, I argued he was essentially asking for "the forced commoditization of cellular networks" which "would necessitate at return to the rate-of-return regulatory methods of the past." Others were a bit more kind to him, but we were all pretty skeptical of his gloomy claims. However, each of us here also argued that the wireless market (especially the applications side of the market) was still developing and that we'd have to check back in a few years to see how well the hands-off approach worked out.

Well, thankfully, we now know for certain that Tim Wu's was much too lugubrious in his outlook and far too quick to call for regulatory intervention to solve a non-crisis. On the occasion of the 3rd anniversary of the release of Prof. Wu's paper, CTIA-The Wireless Association filed a short paper with the FCC taking stock of just how far the mobile marketplace has come in just three short years. The results are really quite remarkable, as CTIA's letter notes:

PFF hosted a very animated discussion yesterday on the proposal to have broadcasters return some of their spectrum for auction in order to clear more spectrum for wireless broadband services. The event featured Blair Levin, Executive Director of the FCC's Omnibus Broadband Initiative, who has been at the center of recent reports that the agency has been talking to broadcasters and the wireless industry about such a proposal.

The tension between stakeholders was palpable as illustrated by heated exchanges between the panelists. Specific topics ranged from the true economic and social value of the spectrum held by broadcasters, to what specific bands would be viable to use for broadband services, to if there really is an upcoming spectrum crisis that needs to be proactively addressed. Panelists even touched upon how regulation of the broadcast industry could hinder any proposed deal. Excellent coverage of the event which describes the highlights better than I can be found at TVNewsCheck.com, WSJ Online, Communications Daily (subscription) and TR Daily (subscription).

Audio of the event is available here and a recent paper on the issue authored by Adam Thierer and Barbara Esbin is available here. A transcript of the event will be available shortly and Adam, who moderated the event, will share his thoughts on the event upon its release.

Seems like everywhere I turn someone is gushing about their new Droid phone, including my TLF colleagues Berin Szoka, Braden Cox, and Ryan Radia, who all had great fun rubbing their new toys in my nose over the past couple of days. And why not, it's a very cool little device. It makes my HTC Touch seems positively archaic in some ways, and it's only a year old. Apparently, 100,000 people already picked up a Droid in just its first weekend on the market.

But here's the first thing that pops in my mind every time I see someone showing off their new Droid: How can a device like this even exist when America's leading cyberlaw experts have been telling us that the whole digital world is increasingly going to hell because of "closed" devices, proprietary code, and managed networks? I'm speaking, of course, about the lamentations of Harvard professors Lawrence Lessig, Jonathan Zittrain, and their many disciples. As faithful readers will recall, I have relentlessly hammered this crew for their unwarranted cyber-Chicken Little-ism and hyper techno-pessimism. (See my many battles with Zittrain [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 + video] and my 2-part debate with Lessig earlier this year).

"Left to itself," Lessig warned in Code, "cyberspace will become a perfect tool of control." He went on to forecast a dystopian future in which nefarious corporate schemers would quash our digital liberties unless benevolent public philosopher kings stepped in to save our poor souls. Code was the Old Testament of cyber-collectivism. The New Testament arrived last year with Zittrain's The Future of the Internet and How to Stop It. In it, we hear the grim prediction that "sterile and tethered" digital technologies and networks will triumph over the more "open and generative" devices and systems of the past. The iPhone and TiVo are cast as villains in Zittrain's drama since they apparently represent the latest manifestations of Lessig's "perfect control" paranoia.

Apple's "Angel of Death"

How completely out-of-control has this thinking gotten? Well, here's David Weinberger -- another Harvard Berkman Center worrywart -- talking about that supposed satanic font of all evil, the Apple AppStore:

Barbara Esbin recently spoke at the Wireless U. Communications Policy Seminar on a panel on financing wireless broadband. Barbara's remarks specifically addressed the National Broadband Plan and the role of state governments.

In addition to presenting sensible suggestions for policymakers, including creating incentives to spur deployment and redirecting universal service funds, Barbara offered a bit of perspective on the issue of broadband deployment:

As important access to broadband Internet service is, if the choice comes down to clean water, Medicaid benefits, or bandwidth, I submit that limited government financial resources might be best directed first to clean water and health care.

This is particularly true of state or local efforts to finance a second, third or fourth provider of high speed Internet service, or to go into the bandwidth business itself. Government spending on broadband infrastructure should be directed primarily to those areas where market forces are unlikely, due to high costs and low prospect for returns, to extend network infrastructure without government assistance.

Her prepared remarks can be found here.

I've ranted on here before about technological etiquette, or that lack thereof by many people. (See my tedious screed from 3 years ago: "A Few Snooty Words about Technological Etiquette." Man, I was really angry when I wrote that piece!) As much as I love technology and defend its unrestricted use, I think it's important to encourage social norms about proper technology use to make it less likely people will call government in to act as a nanny.

That's why I found this new "Intel Holiday Mobile Etiquette" poll so intriguing. According to the poll, which was conducted by Harris Interactive and sponsored by Intel:

most online U.S. adults (80 percent) feel there are unspoken rules about mobile technology usage, and approximately 7 in 10 (69 percent) agreed that violations of these unspoken mobile etiquette guidelines, such as checking e-mails, sending text messages and making phone calls while in the company of others, are unacceptable.

Hmmm... While I'm glad that such a large majority still have a sense of propriety about such things, this sounds like a case of people saying one thing when they likely do quite another. Then again, my perspective might be biased by life in a big city where people have PDAs practically glued to their hands full-time. I've even grown accustomed to people staring at their digital devices more than me during conversations and meetings. Of course, that could just be because I am so damn boring. Regardless, I just remain shocked by how people feel they simply must take every call, answer every email, or do whatever else on their devices in the presence of crowds or others. In my rant from 3 years ago, I offered "Two Simple Rules of Techno-Etiquette" that I will reiterate here as the first steps down the path to techno-etiquette recovery:

(1) If you absolutely MUST take that cell phone call or answer that e-mail right away, try saying this: "Excuse me, do you mind if I do this real quick?"

(2) Do not EVER, under any circumstances, answer a cell phone call while you are in a restaurant, movie theater or other public establishment where relative quiet is expected. If you have to take the call, go outside.

Seriously, would that be so hard?

Wal-Mart is often cast as a villain by some labor unions, local politicians and small retailers, but for the average consumer Wal-Mart has been a savior: A relentless price-cutting machine that instantly changes the dynamics of every market it touches. Indeed, when Wal-Mart decides to jump into a sector by offering a new good or service in its stores, something akin to "the Southwest effect" on steroids kicks in: That market segment is often transformed overnight in that the good or service Wal-Mart starts delivering is essentially instantly commoditized. For the seller of that good or service, this is both a blessing and a curse: They gain the massive market reach that goes along with being in Wal-Mart's 8,000 retail stores. On the other hand, they instantly surrender any semblance of pricing power they once had. And this typically also puts downward pressure on prices not just for the particular good carried in the Wal-Mart stores, but for that entire market segment more generally. [This exact scenario is currently playing out in the book marketplace as Wal-Mart has gone to war with Amazon in cost-cutting bonanza.]

The reason I bring all this up is because, as most of you probably already heard, Wal-Mart jumped into the prepaid cell phone business this week with the launch of Straight Talk:

a new solution in no-contract cellular, exclusively at more than 3,200 Walmart stores nationwide starting October 18, 2009. Straight Talk will bring to the market a new low price for no-contract wireless service with two prepaid plans now available to customers nationwide at $30 and $45 a month. Straight Talk will only be available in Walmart stores and online at www.Walmart.com and www.StraightTalk.com. The average U.S. adult spends $78 on his or her cell phone bill to receive 1000 minutes a month. By switching to the $30 Straight Talk plan, for example, the average 1,000 minutes-per-month consumer could save more than $500 per year and still be on a reliable nationwide network.

I don't want to overplay the significance of this development, but I really do believe that Wal-Mart's presence in this field is significant, at least for entry-level mobile phones. While it would be easy for those of us who use more advanced smartphones to shrug off the Wal-Mart announcement, it would be a mistake for reasons made clear by David Worthington over at Technologizer:

The smell of high-tech regulation is increasingly in the air these days and many lawmakers and some activist groups now have the mobile marketplace in their regulatory cross-hairs. Critics make a variety of claims about the wireless market supposedly lacking competition, choice, innovation, or reasonable pricing. Consequently, they want to wrap America's wireless sector in a sea of red tape. Two important new studies thoroughly debunk these assertions and set the record straight regarding the state of wireless competition and innovation in the U.S. today. These reports are must-reading for Washington policymakers and FCC officials who are currently contemplating regulatory action.

First, Gerald Faulhaber and Dave Farber have a new report out entitled "Innovation in the Wireless Ecosystem: A Customer-Centric Framework." Here's what Faulhaber and Farber find:

the three segments of the wireless marketplace (applications, devices, and core network) have exhibited very substantial innovation and investment since its inception. Perhaps more interesting, innovation in each segment is highly dependent upon innovation in the other segments. For example, new applications depend upon both advances in device hardware capabilities and advances in spectral efficiency of the core network to provide the network capacity to serve those applications. Further, we find that the three segments of the industry are also highly competitive. There are many players in each segment, each of which aggressively seeks out customers through new technology and new business methods. The results of this competition are manifest: (i) firms are driven to innovate and invest in order to win in the competitive marketplace; (ii) new business models have emerged that give customers more choice; and (iii) firms have opened new areas such as wireless broadband and laptop wireless in order to expand their strategic options.

They continue on to address the policy issues in play here and discuss the "consumer-centric" approach they recommend that the FCC adopt:

Some impressive numbers here from the CTIA's Semi-Annual Wireless Industry Survey. There are now more than 276 million wireless users in the U.S., which is almost 14 million more subscribers that there were at this point last year. (Seriously, is there anyone in America who doesn't have their own phone in their pocket or purse these days?) More amazing is the seemingly never-ending explosive growth of text messaging. The CTIA report that:

text messaging continues to be enormously popular, with more than 740 billion text messages carried on carriers' networks during the first half of 2009--breaking down to 4.1 billion messages per day. That's nearly double the number from last year, when only 385 billion text messages were reported for the first half of 2008. Wireless subscribers are also sending more pictures and other multi-media messages with their mobile devices--more than 10.3 billion MMS messages were reported for the first half of 2009, up from 4.7 billion in mid-year 2008.

Most of us probably hadn't even sent one text message ten years ago. And now there 4.1 billion of the suckers flying off our phones every day. That is astonishing.

And we're still gabbing plenty, too. "[W]ireless customers have already used more than 1.1 trillion minutes in the first half of 2009--breaking down to 6.4 billion minutes-of-use per day." As the Grim Reaper said in Monty Python's "Meaning of Life"... "You always talk, you Americans. You talk and you talk.."

Interesting piece here from Slate's Farhad Manjoo on why AT&T should dump unlimited data plans and end what he calls the "iPhone all-you-can-eat buffet." He notes that: "The typical smartphone customer consumes about 40 to 80 megabytes of wireless capacity a month. The typical iPhone customer uses 400 MB a month. AT&T's network is getting crushed by that demand." Because "some iPhone owners are hogging the network" and causing "a slowed-down wireless network," Manjoo recommends a congestion pricing model as a method of balancing supply and demand:

How would my plan work? I propose charging $10 a month for each 100 MB you upload or download on your phone, with a maximum of $40 per month. In other words, people who use 400 MB or more per month will pay $40 for their plan, or $10 more than they pay now. Everybody else will pay their current rate--or less, as little as $10 a month. To summarize: If you don't use your iPhone very much, your current monthly rates will go down; if you use it a lot, your rates will increase. (Of course, only your usage of AT&T's cellular network would count toward your plan; what you do on Wi-Fi wouldn't matter.)

To understand the advantages of tiered pricing, let's look at AT&T's current strategy of spending billions to build more network space. Why won't this work? For the same reason building more roads doesn't reduce traffic--more capacity increases the attractiveness of driving, which brings a lot more cars to the road, which leads to more gridlock.

Congestion pricing and metering is something I've written quite a bit about here in the context of wireline broadband (1, 2, 3), but Manjoo is equally correct that it could be applied for wireless data plans. It has the added value of taking pressure off lawmakers to impose Net neutrality regulation since pricing of the pipe becomes an effective substitute for most other forms of network management. In other words, price, don't block bandwidth-hogging customers and applications. The problem, Manjoo explains:

In a week in which neutrality regulation is making a lot of news, I hope that Robert Hahn and Hal Singer's terrific new study, "Why the iPhone Won't Last Forever and What the Government Should Do to Promote its Successor" gets some attention. It provides a wonderful overview of how dynamically competitive the mobile marketplace has been over the past two decades and why critics are wrong to get worked up about the short-term "dominance" of Apple's iPhone. Here's the abstract of their paper:

Because of the overwhelming, positive response to the iPhone as compared to other smart phones, exclusive agreements between handset makers and wireless carriers have come under increasing scrutiny by regulators and lawmakers. In this paper, we document the myriad revolutions that have occurred in the mobile handset market over the past twenty years. Although casual observers have often claimed that a particular innovation was here to stay, they commonly are proven wrong by unforeseen developments in this fast-changing marketplace. We argue that exclusive agreements can play an important role in helping to ensure that another must-have device will soon come along that will supplant the iPhone, and generate large benefits for consumers. These agreements, which encourage risk taking, increase choice, and frequently lower prices, should be applauded by the government. In contrast, government regulation that would require forced sharing of a successful break-through technology is likely to stifle innovation and hurt consumer welfare.

"New technologies often seemingly emerge from nowhere, but also frequently lose their luster quickly," Hahn and Singer go on to argue. As evidence they cite the recent examples of Second Life and MySpace, which were hyped as potentially become dominant providers in their respective areas just a few years ago, but now are subjected to intense competition. "[T]he the mobile handset market is subject to these same disruptive forces," they argue: